YEARLY HIGH
216.3263 UGX
YEARLY LOW
195.8411 UGX
YEARLY AVERAGE
203.3656 UGX

2021 MDL to UGX Performance & Market Timing Review

Analysis of key historical highlights and timing insights for 2021

During 2021, the MDL to UGX exchange rate experienced significant fluctuation. The market reached its absolute peak on January 10, valuing the pair at 216.3263. Conversely, the yearly low was recorded on July 25, dropping to 195.8411.

This high-to-low spread represents a total annual volatility of 20.4852 UGX. From a start-to-finish perspective, comparing the January average rate of 214.0149 to the December average rate of 200.4875, the exchange rate registered a net change of -6.32% (reflecting a weakening trend).

Looking at year-over-year peak valuations, the 2021 high of 216.3263 was down 3.57% compared to the 2020 peak of 224.3306, indicating shifts in long-term support levels.

Transfer Payout Power Comparison

Comparing the value generated converting 5,000 MDL based on timing:

Yearly Peak High 1,081,632 UGX
2020 Average 1,078,546 UGX
Yearly Trough Low 979,205 UGX
Transaction Impact: A difference of 102,426.24 UGX purely based on transaction execution date.

Trend Visualization

Monthly average fluctuations over the course of 2021.

215.6761
195.7416
JanuMarcMayJulySeptNove

MDL to UGX Seasonal Trends & Volatility Analysis

A structured review of seasonal halves, trading extremes, consecutive streaks, and historical baselines.

Seasonal Halves (H1 vs H2)

Seasonal

The average exchange rate in the first half of the year (H1: Jan–Jun) was 205.7146, compared to 201.0166 in the second half (H2: Jul–Dec). This shows that the rate was stronger in the first half (Jan–Jun) by a margin of 4.6980 points.

H1 Avg (Jan–Jun) 205.7146
H2 Avg (Jul–Dec) 201.0166

Volatility Range Comparison

Volatility

The most volatile month in 2021 was October, with a trading range of 8.4697 UGX (High: 210.2037 / Low: 201.7340). On the other end, July was the most stable month, with a tight range of 3.2550 UGX (High: 199.0960 / Low: 195.8411).

October Spread (Volatile) ±8.4697
July Spread (Stable) ±3.2550

Growth Streaks & Declines

Trends

Between July and October, the exchange rate recorded its longest consecutive growth streak of the year, climbing for 3 straight months. Conversely, the sharpest month-over-month decline occurred between March and April, when the average rate fell by 4.2139 points.

Longest Streak 3 Mo.
Sharpest MoM Drop -4.2139

Same-Month Historical Baseline

YoY Baseline

Comparing the current year's strongest month average (January 2021: 214.0149) against the same month in 2020 (average: 211.7446), the exchange rate shifted by +2.2703 (+1.07%).

2021 Avg (January) 214.0149
2020 Avg (January) 211.7446

Monthly Breakdown

Statistical summary for each calendar month.

Month High Low Average
January 216.3263 211.1164 214.0149
February 213.1263 209.1889 210.5920
March 209.6071 203.2344 206.8903
April 204.1712 200.7967 202.6764
May 202.6632 199.2136 200.8371
June 202.2413 197.1921 199.2770
July 199.0960 195.8411 197.4028
August 202.0291 198.0415 200.1871
September 202.9271 199.6203 200.6350
October 210.2037 201.7340 205.5309
November 204.0109 200.2953 201.8561
December 202.9163 198.4985 200.4875