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2016 ARS to VEF Performance & Market Timing Review
Analysis of key historical highlights and timing insights for 2016
During 2016, the ARS to VEF exchange rate experienced significant fluctuation. The market reached its absolute peak on June 15, valuing the pair at 0.7254. Conversely, the yearly low was recorded on February 29, dropping to 0.4003.
This high-to-low spread represents a total annual volatility of 0.3251 VEF. From a start-to-finish perspective, comparing the January average rate of 0.4662 to the December average rate of 0.6306, the exchange rate registered a net change of 35.25% (reflecting a strengthening trend).
Looking at year-over-year peak valuations, the 2016 high of 0.7254 was down 2.14% compared to the 2015 peak of 0.7412, indicating shifts in long-term support levels.
Comparing the value generated converting 5,000 ARS based on timing:
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ARS to VEF Seasonal Trends & Volatility Analysis
A structured review of seasonal halves, trading extremes, consecutive streaks, and historical baselines.
Seasonal Halves (H1 vs H2)
SeasonalThe average exchange rate in the first half of the year (H1: JanâJun) was 0.5706, compared to 0.6570 in the second half (H2: JulâDec). This shows that the rate was stronger in the second half (JulâDec) by a margin of 0.0865 points.
Volatility Range Comparison
VolatilityThe most volatile month in 2016 was June, with a trading range of 0.0703 VEF (High: 0.7254 / Low: 0.6551). On the other end, October was the most stable month, with a tight range of 0.0099 VEF (High: 0.6603 / Low: 0.6504).
Growth Streaks & Declines
TrendsBetween March and May, the exchange rate recorded its longest consecutive growth streak of the year, climbing for 2 straight months. Conversely, the sharpest month-over-month decline occurred between January and February, when the average rate fell by 0.0385 points.
Same-Month Historical Baseline
YoY BaselineComparing the current year's strongest month average (June 2016: 0.7058) against the same month in 2015 (average: 0.6979), the exchange rate shifted by +0.0080 (+1.14%).
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| Month | High | Low | Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 0.4878 | 0.4533 | 0.4662 |
| February | 0.4490 | 0.4003 | 0.4278 |
| March | 0.4378 | 0.4013 | 0.4245 |
| April | 0.7105 | 0.6747 | 0.6930 |
| May | 0.7169 | 0.6987 | 0.7062 |
| June | 0.7254 | 0.6551 | 0.7058 |
| July | 0.6842 | 0.6629 | 0.6703 |
| August | 0.6804 | 0.6628 | 0.6724 |
| September | 0.6686 | 0.6502 | 0.6610 |
| October | 0.6603 | 0.6504 | 0.6572 |
| November | 0.6658 | 0.6327 | 0.6508 |
| December | 0.6456 | 0.6235 | 0.6306 |