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2021 CVE to UGX Performance & Market Timing Review
Analysis of key historical highlights and timing insights for 2021
During 2021, the CVE to UGX exchange rate experienced significant fluctuation. The market reached its absolute peak on January 9, valuing the pair at 40.9812. Conversely, the yearly low was recorded on December 20, dropping to 36.1175.
This high-to-low spread represents a total annual volatility of 4.8637 UGX. From a start-to-finish perspective, comparing the January average rate of 40.5755 to the December average rate of 36.2775, the exchange rate registered a net change of -10.59% (reflecting a weakening trend).
Looking at year-over-year peak valuations, the 2021 high of 40.9812 was up 1.04% compared to the 2020 peak of 40.5576, indicating shifts in long-term support levels.
Comparing the value generated converting 5,000 CVE based on timing:
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CVE to UGX Seasonal Trends & Volatility Analysis
A structured review of seasonal halves, trading extremes, consecutive streaks, and historical baselines.
Seasonal Halves (H1 vs H2)
SeasonalThe average exchange rate in the first half of the year (H1: JanâJun) was 39.4245, compared to 37.2824 in the second half (H2: JulâDec). This shows that the rate was stronger in the first half (JanâJun) by a margin of 2.1421 points.
Volatility Range Comparison
VolatilityThe most volatile month in 2021 was June, with a trading range of 2.1447 UGX (High: 39.2530 / Low: 37.1082). On the other end, December was the most stable month, with a tight range of 0.4432 UGX (High: 36.5606 / Low: 36.1175).
Growth Streaks & Declines
TrendsNo sustained consecutive month-over-month growth streak of 2+ months occurred in 2021. Conversely, the sharpest month-over-month decline occurred between October and November, when the average rate fell by 0.8244 points.
Same-Month Historical Baseline
YoY BaselineComparing the current year's strongest month average (January 2021: 40.5755) against the same month in 2020 (average: 36.9113), the exchange rate shifted by +3.6642 (+9.93%).
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| Month | High | Low | Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 40.9812 | 40.1720 | 40.5755 |
| February | 40.2633 | 39.6047 | 40.0490 |
| March | 39.9468 | 38.7806 | 39.3362 |
| April | 39.4060 | 38.8259 | 39.1459 |
| May | 39.3812 | 38.5147 | 38.9515 |
| June | 39.2530 | 37.1082 | 38.4887 |
| July | 38.1450 | 37.5966 | 37.9092 |
| August | 38.1229 | 37.3057 | 37.7236 |
| September | 37.9086 | 37.1846 | 37.5956 |
| October | 38.2024 | 37.0784 | 37.5064 |
| November | 37.2505 | 36.1239 | 36.6820 |
| December | 36.5606 | 36.1175 | 36.2775 |