YEARLY HIGH
8.6409 RSD
YEARLY LOW
7.1440 RSD
YEARLY AVERAGE
7.5471 RSD

2016 ARS to RSD Performance & Market Timing Review

Analysis of key historical highlights and timing insights for 2016

During 2016, the ARS to RSD exchange rate experienced significant fluctuation. The market reached its absolute peak on January 2, valuing the pair at 8.6409. Conversely, the yearly low was recorded on October 1, dropping to 7.1440.

This high-to-low spread represents a total annual volatility of 1.4968 RSD. From a start-to-finish perspective, comparing the January average rate of 8.3229 to the December average rate of 7.3895, the exchange rate registered a net change of -11.22% (reflecting a weakening trend).

Looking at year-over-year peak valuations, the 2016 high of 8.6409 was down 33.36% compared to the 2015 peak of 12.9656, indicating shifts in long-term support levels.

Transfer Payout Power Comparison

Comparing the value generated converting 5,000 ARS based on timing:

Yearly Peak High 43,204 RSD
2015 Average 59,071 RSD
Yearly Trough Low 35,720 RSD
Transaction Impact: A difference of 7,484.20 RSD purely based on transaction execution date.

Trend Visualization

Monthly average fluctuations over the course of 2016.

8.4272
7.1758
JanuMarcMayJulySeptNove

ARS to RSD Seasonal Trends & Volatility Analysis

A structured review of seasonal halves, trading extremes, consecutive streaks, and historical baselines.

Seasonal Halves (H1 vs H2)

Seasonal

The average exchange rate in the first half of the year (H1: JanтАУJun) was 7.7045, compared to 7.3896 in the second half (H2: JulтАУDec). This shows that the rate was stronger in the first half (JanтАУJun) by a margin of 0.3149 points.

H1 Avg (JanтАУJun) 7.7045
H2 Avg (JulтАУDec) 7.3896

Volatility Range Comparison

Volatility

The most volatile month in 2016 was February, with a trading range of 0.8627 RSD (High: 8.0232 / Low: 7.1605). On the other end, November was the most stable month, with a tight range of 0.1972 RSD (High: 7.5278 / Low: 7.3306).

February Spread (Volatile) ┬▒0.8627
November Spread (Stable) ┬▒0.1972

Growth Streaks & Declines

Trends

Between March and June, the exchange rate recorded its longest consecutive growth streak of the year, climbing for 3 straight months. Conversely, the sharpest month-over-month decline occurred between January and February, when the average rate fell by 0.8386 points.

Longest Streak 3 Mo.
Sharpest MoM Drop -0.8386

Same-Month Historical Baseline

YoY Baseline

Comparing the current year's strongest month average (January 2016: 8.3229) against the same month in 2015 (average: 12.2534), the exchange rate shifted by -3.9305 (-32.08%).

2016 Avg (January) 8.3229
2015 Avg (January) 12.2534

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Month High Low Average
January 8.6409 8.0653 8.3229
February 8.0232 7.1605 7.4843
March 7.5987 7.2087 7.4223
April 7.7571 7.2846 7.5262
May 7.9781 7.4919 7.7033
June 7.9993 7.3460 7.7682
July 7.6280 7.3573 7.4778
August 7.5293 7.2920 7.4082
September 7.3823 7.1469 7.2801
October 7.4665 7.1440 7.3460
November 7.5278 7.3306 7.4360
December 7.6418 7.1804 7.3895