YEARLY HIGH
3.5821 UGX
YEARLY LOW
2.3362 UGX
YEARLY AVERAGE
2.9517 UGX

2025 ARS to UGX Performance & Market Timing Review

Analysis of key historical highlights and timing insights for 2025

During 2025, the ARS to UGX exchange rate experienced significant fluctuation. The market reached its absolute peak on January 11, valuing the pair at 3.5821. Conversely, the yearly low was recorded on October 25, dropping to 2.3362.

This high-to-low spread represents a total annual volatility of 1.2459 UGX. From a start-to-finish perspective, comparing the January average rate of 3.5422 to the December average rate of 2.4700, the exchange rate registered a net change of -30.27% (reflecting a weakening trend).

Looking at year-over-year peak valuations, the 2025 high of 3.5821 was down 23.78% compared to the 2024 peak of 4.6995, indicating shifts in long-term support levels.

Transfer Payout Power Comparison

Comparing the value generated converting 5,000 ARS based on timing:

Yearly Peak High 17,910 UGX
2024 Average 20,645 UGX
Yearly Trough Low 11,681 UGX
Transaction Impact: A difference of 6,229.43 UGX purely based on transaction execution date.

Trend Visualization

Monthly average fluctuations over the course of 2025.

3.6546
2.3052
JanuMarcMayJulySeptNove

ARS to UGX Seasonal Trends & Volatility Analysis

A structured review of seasonal halves, trading extremes, consecutive streaks, and historical baselines.

Seasonal Halves (H1 vs H2)

Seasonal

The average exchange rate in the first half of the year (H1: Jan–Jun) was 3.3296, compared to 2.5739 in the second half (H2: Jul–Dec). This shows that the rate was stronger in the first half (Jan–Jun) by a margin of 0.7557 points.

H1 Avg (Jan–Jun) 3.3296
H2 Avg (Jul–Dec) 2.5739

Volatility Range Comparison

Volatility

The most volatile month in 2025 was July, with a trading range of 0.5790 UGX (High: 3.1919 / Low: 2.6129). On the other end, December was the most stable month, with a tight range of 0.0565 UGX (High: 2.4961 / Low: 2.4396).

July Spread (Volatile) ±0.5790
December Spread (Stable) ±0.0565

Growth Streaks & Declines

Trends

No sustained consecutive month-over-month growth streak of 2+ months occurred in 2025. Conversely, the sharpest month-over-month decline occurred between June and July, when the average rate fell by 0.1940 points.

Longest Streak 1 Mo.
Sharpest MoM Drop -0.1940

Same-Month Historical Baseline

YoY Baseline

Comparing the current year's strongest month average (January 2025: 3.5422) against the same month in 2024 (average: 4.6522), the exchange rate shifted by -1.1101 (-23.86%).

2025 Avg (January) 3.5422
2024 Avg (January) 4.6522

Monthly Breakdown

Statistical summary for each calendar month.

Month High Low Average
January 3.5821 3.5019 3.5422
February 3.5129 3.4555 3.4806
March 3.4724 3.3930 3.4393
April 3.4580 3.0623 3.2760
May 3.2975 3.0521 3.1804
June 3.1513 2.9847 3.0592
July 3.1919 2.6129 2.8652
August 2.7608 2.6131 2.6877
September 2.6162 2.3736 2.5024
October 2.5527 2.3362 2.4177
November 2.5981 2.3504 2.5001
December 2.4961 2.4396 2.4700