2016 ETB to KES Historical Review

YEARLY HIGH

4.8347 KES

YEARLY LOW

4.5279 KES

YEARLY AVERAGE

4.6502 KES

2016 ETB to KES Performance & Market Timing Review

Analysis of key historical highlights and timing insights for 2016

During 2016, the ETB to KES exchange rate experienced significant fluctuation. The market reached its absolute peak on January 3, valuing the pair at 4.8347. Conversely, the yearly low was recorded on December 8, dropping to 4.5279.

This high-to-low spread represents a total annual volatility of 0.3067 KES. From a start-to-finish perspective, comparing the January average rate of 4.8175 to the December average rate of 4.5623, the exchange rate registered a net change of -5.30% (reflecting a weakening trend).

Looking at year-over-year peak valuations, the 2016 high of 4.8347 was down 4.88% compared to the 2015 peak of 5.0829, indicating shifts in long-term support levels.

Transfer Payout Power Comparison

Comparing the value generated converting 5,000 ETB based on timing:

Yearly Peak High 24,173 KES

2015 Average 23,734 KES

Yearly Trough Low 22,640 KES

Transaction Impact: A difference of 1,533.73 KES purely based on transaction execution date.

Trend Visualization

Monthly average fluctuations over the course of 2016.

4.8434

4.5334

JanuMarcMayJulySeptNove

ETB to KES Seasonal Trends & Volatility Analysis

A structured review of seasonal halves, trading extremes, consecutive streaks, and historical baselines.

Seasonal Halves (H1 vs H2)

Seasonal

The average exchange rate in the first half of the year (H1: Jan–Jun) was 4.7208, compared to 4.5795 in the second half (H2: Jul–Dec). This shows that the rate was stronger in the first half (Jan–Jun) by a margin of 0.1414 points.

H1 Avg (Jan–Jun) 4.7208

H2 Avg (Jul–Dec) 4.5795

Volatility Range Comparison

Volatility

The most volatile month in 2016 was May, with a trading range of 0.0848 KES (High: 4.6871 / Low: 4.6024). On the other end, August was the most stable month, with a tight range of 0.0277 KES (High: 4.6138 / Low: 4.5861).

May Spread (Volatile) ±0.0848

August Spread (Stable) ±0.0277

Growth Streaks & Declines

Trends

No sustained consecutive month-over-month growth streak of 2+ months occurred in 2016. Conversely, the sharpest month-over-month decline occurred between April and May, when the average rate fell by 0.0506 points.

Longest Streak 1 Mo.

Sharpest MoM Drop -0.0506

Same-Month Historical Baseline

YoY Baseline

Comparing the current year's strongest month average (January 2016: 4.8175) against the same month in 2015 (average: 4.5121), the exchange rate shifted by +0.3055 (+6.77%).

2016 Avg (January) 4.8175

2015 Avg (January) 4.5121

Monthly Breakdown

Statistical summary for each calendar month.

Month	High	Low	Average
January	4.8347	4.8027	4.8175
February	4.8247	4.7669	4.7832
March	4.7628	4.7113	4.7438
April	4.7223	4.6744	4.6967
May	4.6871	4.6024	4.6461
June	4.6555	4.6230	4.6377
July	4.6304	4.5913	4.6146
August	4.6138	4.5861	4.5957
September	4.5997	4.5613	4.5803
October	4.5816	4.5460	4.5646
November	4.5716	4.5423	4.5592
December	4.5989	4.5279	4.5623