2011 UGX to BIF Historical Review

YEARLY HIGH

0.5550 BIF

YEARLY LOW

0.4254 BIF

YEARLY AVERAGE

0.4810 BIF

2011 UGX to BIF Performance & Market Timing Review

Analysis of key historical highlights and timing insights for 2011

During 2011, the UGX to BIF exchange rate experienced significant fluctuation. The market reached its absolute peak on December 19, valuing the pair at 0.5550. Conversely, the yearly low was recorded on October 12, dropping to 0.4254.

This high-to-low spread represents a total annual volatility of 0.1296 BIF. From a start-to-finish perspective, comparing the January average rate of 0.4873 to the December average rate of 0.5260, the exchange rate registered a net change of 7.95% (reflecting a strengthening trend).

Looking at year-over-year peak valuations, the 2011 high of 0.5550 was down 7.31% compared to the 2010 peak of 0.5988, indicating shifts in long-term support levels.

Transfer Payout Power Comparison

Comparing the value generated converting 5,000 UGX based on timing:

Yearly Peak High 2,775 BIF

2010 Average 2,615 BIF

Yearly Trough Low 2,127 BIF

Transaction Impact: A difference of 648.03 BIF purely based on transaction execution date.

Trend Visualization

Monthly average fluctuations over the course of 2011.

0.5350

0.4274

JanuMarcMayJulySeptNove

UGX to BIF Seasonal Trends & Volatility Analysis

A structured review of seasonal halves, trading extremes, consecutive streaks, and historical baselines.

Seasonal Halves (H1 vs H2)

Seasonal

The average exchange rate in the first half of the year (H1: Jan–Jun) was 0.4952, compared to 0.4667 in the second half (H2: Jul–Dec). This shows that the rate was stronger in the first half (Jan–Jun) by a margin of 0.0285 points.

H1 Avg (Jan–Jun) 0.4952

H2 Avg (Jul–Dec) 0.4667

Volatility Range Comparison

Volatility

The most volatile month in 2011 was December, with a trading range of 0.0727 BIF (High: 0.5550 / Low: 0.4823). On the other end, May was the most stable month, with a tight range of 0.0065 BIF (High: 0.5164 / Low: 0.5099).

December Spread (Volatile) ±0.0727

May Spread (Stable) ±0.0065

Growth Streaks & Declines

Trends

Between September and December, the exchange rate recorded its longest consecutive growth streak of the year, climbing for 3 straight months. Conversely, the sharpest month-over-month decline occurred between July and August, when the average rate fell by 0.0281 points.

Longest Streak 3 Mo.

Sharpest MoM Drop -0.0281

Same-Month Historical Baseline

YoY Baseline

Comparing the current year's strongest month average (December 2011: 0.5260) against the same month in 2010 (average: 0.4922), the exchange rate shifted by +0.0338 (+6.87%).

2011 Avg (December) 0.5260

2010 Avg (December) 0.4922

Monthly Breakdown

Statistical summary for each calendar month.

Month	High	Low	Average
January	0.4961	0.4734	0.4873
February	0.4937	0.4776	0.4845
March	0.4812	0.4694	0.4740
April	0.5282	0.4755	0.5125
May	0.5164	0.5099	0.5126
June	0.5148	0.4593	0.5003
July	0.4848	0.4680	0.4739
August	0.4704	0.4335	0.4458
September	0.4434	0.4271	0.4363
October	0.4771	0.4254	0.4395
November	0.5030	0.4679	0.4788
December	0.5550	0.4823	0.5260