YEARLY HIGH
163.3680 UGX
YEARLY LOW
151.2449 UGX
YEARLY AVERAGE
155.8446 UGX

2018 HNL to UGX Performance & Market Timing Review

Analysis of key historical highlights and timing insights for 2018

During 2018, the HNL to UGX exchange rate experienced significant fluctuation. The market reached its absolute peak on June 21, valuing the pair at 163.3680. Conversely, the yearly low was recorded on December 22, dropping to 151.2449.

This high-to-low spread represents a total annual volatility of 12.1232 UGX. From a start-to-finish perspective, comparing the January average rate of 154.0347 to the December average rate of 153.1104, the exchange rate registered a net change of -0.60% (reflecting a weakening trend).

Looking at year-over-year peak valuations, the 2018 high of 163.3680 was up 2.80% compared to the 2017 peak of 158.9215, indicating shifts in long-term support levels.

Transfer Payout Power Comparison

Comparing the value generated converting 5,000 HNL based on timing:

Yearly Peak High 816,840 UGX
2017 Average 770,462 UGX
Yearly Trough Low 756,224 UGX
Transaction Impact: A difference of 60,615.84 UGX purely based on transaction execution date.

Trend Visualization

Monthly average fluctuations over the course of 2018.

160.8548
152.4063
JanuMarcMayJulySeptNove

HNL to UGX Seasonal Trends & Volatility Analysis

A structured review of seasonal halves, trading extremes, consecutive streaks, and historical baselines.

Seasonal Halves (H1 vs H2)

Seasonal

The average exchange rate in the first half of the year (H1: Jan–Jun) was 156.0079, compared to 155.6813 in the second half (H2: Jul–Dec). This shows that the rate was stronger in the first half (Jan–Jun) by a margin of 0.3266 points.

H1 Avg (Jan–Jun) 156.0079
H2 Avg (Jul–Dec) 155.6813

Volatility Range Comparison

Volatility

The most volatile month in 2018 was December, with a trading range of 12.0836 UGX (High: 163.3284 / Low: 151.2449). On the other end, February was the most stable month, with a tight range of 1.5033 UGX (High: 155.0545 / Low: 153.5512).

December Spread (Volatile) ±12.0836
February Spread (Stable) ±1.5033

Growth Streaks & Declines

Trends

Between January and June, the exchange rate recorded its longest consecutive growth streak of the year, climbing for 5 straight months. Conversely, the sharpest month-over-month decline occurred between June and July, when the average rate fell by 3.5112 points.

Longest Streak 5 Mo.
Sharpest MoM Drop -3.5112

Same-Month Historical Baseline

YoY Baseline

Comparing the current year's strongest month average (June 2018: 160.1508) against the same month in 2017 (average: 153.2365), the exchange rate shifted by +6.9143 (+4.51%).

2018 Avg (June) 160.1508
2017 Avg (June) 153.2365

Monthly Breakdown

Statistical summary for each calendar month.

Month High Low Average
January 155.1221 153.4022 154.0347
February 155.0545 153.5512 154.2094
March 156.0652 153.9834 154.7071
April 157.0352 155.2373 156.1660
May 157.9235 156.1691 156.7795
June 163.3680 157.6963 160.1508
July 162.4498 153.1770 156.6395
August 157.0560 153.4571 155.3698
September 159.2281 156.5908 158.0911
October 158.7800 155.9118 156.9143
November 155.2957 152.6965 153.9628
December 163.3284 151.2449 153.1104