2021 HNL to UGX Historical Review

YEARLY HIGH

153.5807 UGX

YEARLY LOW

145.0867 UGX

YEARLY AVERAGE

148.7968 UGX

2021 HNL to UGX Performance & Market Timing Review

Analysis of key historical highlights and timing insights for 2021

During 2021, the HNL to UGX exchange rate experienced significant fluctuation. The market reached its absolute peak on January 9, valuing the pair at 153.5807. Conversely, the yearly low was recorded on December 30, dropping to 145.0867.

This high-to-low spread represents a total annual volatility of 8.4940 UGX. From a start-to-finish perspective, comparing the January average rate of 152.2478 to the December average rate of 146.4043, the exchange rate registered a net change of -3.84% (reflecting a weakening trend).

Looking at year-over-year peak valuations, the 2021 high of 153.5807 was down 2.41% compared to the 2020 peak of 157.3689, indicating shifts in long-term support levels.

Transfer Payout Power Comparison

Comparing the value generated converting 5,000 HNL based on timing:

Yearly Peak High 767,903 UGX

2020 Average 751,341 UGX

Yearly Trough Low 725,433 UGX

Transaction Impact: A difference of 42,470.04 UGX purely based on transaction execution date.

Trend Visualization

Monthly average fluctuations over the course of 2021.

152.8321

145.8199

JanuMarcMayJulySeptNove

HNL to UGX Seasonal Trends & Volatility Analysis

A structured review of seasonal halves, trading extremes, consecutive streaks, and historical baselines.

Seasonal Halves (H1 vs H2)

Seasonal

The average exchange rate in the first half of the year (H1: Jan–Jun) was 150.0000, compared to 147.5936 in the second half (H2: Jul–Dec). This shows that the rate was stronger in the first half (Jan–Jun) by a margin of 2.4064 points.

H1 Avg (Jan–Jun) 150.0000

H2 Avg (Jul–Dec) 147.5936

Volatility Range Comparison

Volatility

The most volatile month in 2021 was January, with a trading range of 5.1903 UGX (High: 153.5807 / Low: 148.3903). On the other end, February was the most stable month, with a tight range of 1.8417 UGX (High: 152.2094 / Low: 150.3677).

January Spread (Volatile) ±5.1903

February Spread (Stable) ±1.8417

Growth Streaks & Declines

Trends

Between June and August, the exchange rate recorded its longest consecutive growth streak of the year, climbing for 2 straight months. Conversely, the sharpest month-over-month decline occurred between April and May, when the average rate fell by 3.0828 points.

Longest Streak 2 Mo.

Sharpest MoM Drop -3.0828

Same-Month Historical Baseline

YoY Baseline

Comparing the current year's strongest month average (January 2021: 152.2478) against the same month in 2020 (average: 148.4159), the exchange rate shifted by +3.8318 (+2.58%).

2021 Avg (January) 152.2478

2020 Avg (January) 148.4159

Monthly Breakdown

Statistical summary for each calendar month.

Month	High	Low	Average
January	153.5807	148.3903	152.2478
February	152.2094	150.3677	151.2728
March	152.0847	150.1558	151.2477
April	152.3215	148.0703	150.5575
May	148.8972	146.3630	147.4747
June	148.7660	146.0332	147.1998
July	149.8136	147.5211	148.7372
August	149.7557	147.8273	148.7431
September	148.0567	145.7208	146.4732
October	150.1048	146.3662	148.0817
November	148.2951	145.9881	147.1222
December	147.8377	145.0867	146.4043