2016 GEL to UGX Historical Review

YEARLY HIGH

1578.6000 UGX

YEARLY LOW

1268.9750 UGX

YEARLY AVERAGE

1448.4392 UGX

2016 GEL to UGX Performance & Market Timing Review

Analysis of key historical highlights and timing insights for 2016

During 2016, the GEL to UGX exchange rate experienced significant fluctuation. The market reached its absolute peak on June 7, valuing the pair at 1578.6000. Conversely, the yearly low was recorded on December 21, dropping to 1268.9750.

This high-to-low spread represents a total annual volatility of 309.6250 UGX. From a start-to-finish perspective, comparing the January average rate of 1414.2345 to the December average rate of 1358.3320, the exchange rate registered a net change of -3.95% (reflecting a weakening trend).

Looking at year-over-year peak valuations, the 2016 high of 1578.6000 was down 7.80% compared to the 2015 peak of 1712.1127, indicating shifts in long-term support levels.

Transfer Payout Power Comparison

Comparing the value generated converting 5,000 GEL based on timing:

Yearly Peak High 7,893,000 UGX

2015 Average 7,377,336 UGX

Yearly Trough Low 6,344,875 UGX

Transaction Impact: A difference of 1,548,124.99 UGX purely based on transaction execution date.

Trend Visualization

Monthly average fluctuations over the course of 2016.

1553.7442

1340.5673

JanuMarcMayJulySeptNove

GEL to UGX Seasonal Trends & Volatility Analysis

A structured review of seasonal halves, trading extremes, consecutive streaks, and historical baselines.

Seasonal Halves (H1 vs H2)

Seasonal

The average exchange rate in the first half of the year (H1: Jan–Jun) was 1460.4133, compared to 1436.4651 in the second half (H2: Jul–Dec). This shows that the rate was stronger in the first half (Jan–Jun) by a margin of 23.9482 points.

H1 Avg (Jan–Jun) 1460.4133

H2 Avg (Jul–Dec) 1436.4651

Volatility Range Comparison

Volatility

The most volatile month in 2016 was December, with a trading range of 150.7612 UGX (High: 1419.7362 / Low: 1268.9750). On the other end, October was the most stable month, with a tight range of 22.8907 UGX (High: 1469.6837 / Low: 1446.7930).

December Spread (Volatile) ±150.7612

October Spread (Stable) ±22.8907

Growth Streaks & Declines

Trends

Between February and June, the exchange rate recorded its longest consecutive growth streak of the year, climbing for 4 straight months. Conversely, the sharpest month-over-month decline occurred between June and July, when the average rate fell by 92.1109 points.

Longest Streak 4 Mo.

Sharpest MoM Drop -92.1109

Same-Month Historical Baseline

YoY Baseline

Comparing the current year's strongest month average (June 2016: 1535.9794) against the same month in 2015 (average: 1411.4032), the exchange rate shifted by +124.5763 (+8.83%).

2016 Avg (June) 1535.9794

2015 Avg (June) 1411.4032

Monthly Breakdown

Statistical summary for each calendar month.

Month	High	Low	Average
January	1435.6145	1396.8630	1414.2345
February	1403.2677	1359.2082	1380.7352
March	1472.3528	1353.8310	1416.5475
April	1500.2290	1465.4421	1481.3448
May	1578.3781	1489.5990	1533.6385
June	1578.6000	1447.1398	1535.9794
July	1468.9292	1432.0332	1443.8685
August	1482.8612	1431.2824	1455.2837
September	1476.7293	1449.0915	1463.9564
October	1469.6837	1446.7930	1456.8297
November	1457.5521	1422.3922	1440.5204
December	1419.7362	1268.9750	1358.3320