YEARLY HIGH
6.5900 KES
YEARLY LOW
5.6790 KES
YEARLY AVERAGE
6.1816 KES

2020 MDL to KES Performance & Market Timing Review

Analysis of key historical highlights and timing insights for 2020

During 2020, the MDL to KES exchange rate experienced significant fluctuation. The market reached its absolute peak on August 11, valuing the pair at 6.5900. Conversely, the yearly low was recorded on February 24, dropping to 5.6790.

This high-to-low spread represents a total annual volatility of 0.9110 KES. From a start-to-finish perspective, comparing the January average rate of 5.8191 to the December average rate of 6.4271, the exchange rate registered a net change of 10.45% (reflecting a strengthening trend).

Looking at year-over-year peak valuations, the 2020 high of 6.5900 was up 9.49% compared to the 2019 peak of 6.0191, indicating shifts in long-term support levels.

Transfer Payout Power Comparison

Comparing the value generated converting 5,000 MDL based on timing:

Yearly Peak High 32,950 KES
2019 Average 29,112 KES
Yearly Trough Low 28,395 KES
Transaction Impact: A difference of 4,554.92 KES purely based on transaction execution date.

Trend Visualization

Monthly average fluctuations over the course of 2020.

6.6162
5.6644
JanuMarcMayJulySeptNove

MDL to KES Seasonal Trends & Volatility Analysis

A structured review of seasonal halves, trading extremes, consecutive streaks, and historical baselines.

Seasonal Halves (H1 vs H2)

Seasonal

The average exchange rate in the first half of the year (H1: Jan–Jun) was 5.9244, compared to 6.4388 in the second half (H2: Jul–Dec). This shows that the rate was stronger in the second half (Jul–Dec) by a margin of 0.5144 points.

H1 Avg (Jan–Jun) 5.9244
H2 Avg (Jul–Dec) 6.4388

Volatility Range Comparison

Volatility

The most volatile month in 2020 was April, with a trading range of 0.3685 KES (High: 6.0652 / Low: 5.6967). On the other end, November was the most stable month, with a tight range of 0.0714 KES (High: 6.4294 / Low: 6.3580).

April Spread (Volatile) ±0.3685
November Spread (Stable) ±0.0714

Growth Streaks & Declines

Trends

Between April and August, the exchange rate recorded its longest consecutive growth streak of the year, climbing for 4 straight months. Conversely, the sharpest month-over-month decline occurred between September and October, when the average rate fell by 0.0987 points.

Longest Streak 4 Mo.
Sharpest MoM Drop -0.0987

Same-Month Historical Baseline

YoY Baseline

Comparing the current year's strongest month average (August 2020: 6.5369) against the same month in 2019 (average: 5.8598), the exchange rate shifted by +0.6770 (+11.55%).

2020 Avg (August) 6.5369
2019 Avg (August) 5.8598

Monthly Breakdown

Statistical summary for each calendar month.

Month High Low Average
January 5.9185 5.7038 5.8191
February 5.8244 5.6790 5.7437
March 5.9722 5.7484 5.8774
April 6.0652 5.6967 5.8738
May 6.1152 5.9531 6.0316
June 6.2877 6.1096 6.2008
July 6.5135 6.1703 6.3331
August 6.5900 6.4857 6.5369
September 6.5764 6.4328 6.5237
October 6.4644 6.3665 6.4249
November 6.4294 6.3580 6.3872
December 6.5386 6.3033 6.4271