2011 CDF to UGX Historical Review

YEARLY HIGH

3.1730 UGX

YEARLY LOW

2.5056 UGX

YEARLY AVERAGE

2.7683 UGX

2011 CDF to UGX Performance & Market Timing Review

Analysis of key historical highlights and timing insights for 2011

During 2011, the CDF to UGX exchange rate experienced significant fluctuation. The market reached its absolute peak on October 11, valuing the pair at 3.1730. Conversely, the yearly low was recorded on January 30, dropping to 2.5056.

This high-to-low spread represents a total annual volatility of 0.6674 UGX. From a start-to-finish perspective, comparing the January average rate of 2.5692 to the December average rate of 2.7096, the exchange rate registered a net change of 5.47% (reflecting a strengthening trend).

Looking at year-over-year peak valuations, the 2011 high of 3.1730 was up 21.03% compared to the 2010 peak of 2.6216, indicating shifts in long-term support levels.

Transfer Payout Power Comparison

Comparing the value generated converting 5,000 CDF based on timing:

Yearly Peak High 15,865 UGX

2010 Average 12,174 UGX

Yearly Trough Low 12,528 UGX

Transaction Impact: A difference of 3,337.01 UGX purely based on transaction execution date.

Trend Visualization

Monthly average fluctuations over the course of 2011.

3.1252

2.5136

JanuMarcMayJulySeptNove

CDF to UGX Seasonal Trends & Volatility Analysis

A structured review of seasonal halves, trading extremes, consecutive streaks, and historical baselines.

Seasonal Halves (H1 vs H2)

Seasonal

The average exchange rate in the first half of the year (H1: Jan–Jun) was 2.6136, compared to 2.9230 in the second half (H2: Jul–Dec). This shows that the rate was stronger in the second half (Jul–Dec) by a margin of 0.3094 points.

H1 Avg (Jan–Jun) 2.6136

H2 Avg (Jul–Dec) 2.9230

Volatility Range Comparison

Volatility

The most volatile month in 2011 was October, with a trading range of 0.3514 UGX (High: 3.1730 / Low: 2.8216). On the other end, May was the most stable month, with a tight range of 0.0335 UGX (High: 2.6372 / Low: 2.6037).

October Spread (Volatile) ±0.3514

May Spread (Stable) ±0.0335

Growth Streaks & Declines

Trends

Between April and September, the exchange rate recorded its longest consecutive growth streak of the year, climbing for 5 straight months. Conversely, the sharpest month-over-month decline occurred between October and November, when the average rate fell by 0.2239 points.

Longest Streak 5 Mo.

Sharpest MoM Drop -0.2239

Same-Month Historical Baseline

YoY Baseline

Comparing the current year's strongest month average (October 2011: 3.0580) against the same month in 2010 (average: 2.5178), the exchange rate shifted by +0.5402 (+21.46%).

2011 Avg (October) 3.0580

2010 Avg (October) 2.5178

Monthly Breakdown

Statistical summary for each calendar month.

Month	High	Low	Average
January	2.6366	2.5056	2.5692
February	2.6056	2.5288	2.5646
March	2.6523	2.5883	2.6263
April	2.6286	2.5530	2.6031
May	2.6372	2.6037	2.6169
June	2.9411	2.6118	2.7017
July	2.8802	2.7916	2.8386
August	3.0888	2.8688	3.0235
September	3.1489	3.0297	3.0742
October	3.1730	2.8216	3.0580
November	2.8809	2.7509	2.8341
December	2.8181	2.6115	2.7096