YEARLY HIGH
3.9888 UGX
YEARLY LOW
2.9932 UGX
YEARLY AVERAGE
3.4940 UGX

2015 CDF to UGX Performance & Market Timing Review

Analysis of key historical highlights and timing insights for 2015

During 2015, the CDF to UGX exchange rate experienced significant fluctuation. The market reached its absolute peak on October 7, valuing the pair at 3.9888. Conversely, the yearly low was recorded on January 4, dropping to 2.9932.

This high-to-low spread represents a total annual volatility of 0.9956 UGX. From a start-to-finish perspective, comparing the January average rate of 3.0794 to the December average rate of 3.6267, the exchange rate registered a net change of 17.77% (reflecting a strengthening trend).

Looking at year-over-year peak valuations, the 2015 high of 3.9888 was up 32.62% compared to the 2014 peak of 3.0078, indicating shifts in long-term support levels.

Transfer Payout Power Comparison

Comparing the value generated converting 5,000 CDF based on timing:

Yearly Peak High 19,944 UGX
2014 Average 14,066 UGX
Yearly Trough Low 14,966 UGX
Transaction Impact: A difference of 4,977.75 UGX purely based on transaction execution date.

Trend Visualization

Monthly average fluctuations over the course of 2015.

4.0380
2.9922
JanuMarcMayJulySeptNove

CDF to UGX Seasonal Trends & Volatility Analysis

A structured review of seasonal halves, trading extremes, consecutive streaks, and historical baselines.

Seasonal Halves (H1 vs H2)

Seasonal

The average exchange rate in the first half of the year (H1: Jan–Jun) was 3.2145, compared to 3.7735 in the second half (H2: Jul–Dec). This shows that the rate was stronger in the second half (Jul–Dec) by a margin of 0.5591 points.

H1 Avg (Jan–Jun) 3.2145
H2 Avg (Jul–Dec) 3.7735

Volatility Range Comparison

Volatility

The most volatile month in 2015 was July, with a trading range of 0.2952 UGX (High: 3.8130 / Low: 3.5177). On the other end, September was the most stable month, with a tight range of 0.0419 UGX (High: 3.9783 / Low: 3.9364).

July Spread (Volatile) ±0.2952
September Spread (Stable) ±0.0419

Growth Streaks & Declines

Trends

Between January and September, the exchange rate recorded its longest consecutive growth streak of the year, climbing for 8 straight months. Conversely, the sharpest month-over-month decline occurred between October and November, when the average rate fell by 0.2331 points.

Longest Streak 8 Mo.
Sharpest MoM Drop -0.2331

Same-Month Historical Baseline

YoY Baseline

Comparing the current year's strongest month average (October 2015: 3.9264) against the same month in 2014 (average: 2.8940), the exchange rate shifted by +1.0323 (+35.67%).

2015 Avg (October) 3.9264
2014 Avg (October) 2.8940

Monthly Breakdown

Statistical summary for each calendar month.

Month High Low Average
January 3.1309 2.9932 3.0794
February 3.1517 3.0750 3.1005
March 3.2538 3.1166 3.1813
April 3.2508 3.2079 3.2306
May 3.3062 3.2234 3.2516
June 3.5661 3.3161 3.4435
July 3.8130 3.5177 3.6164
August 3.9436 3.7128 3.8276
September 3.9783 3.9364 3.9508
October 3.9888 3.8113 3.9264
November 3.8265 3.6164 3.6932
December 3.7589 3.5476 3.6267