2016 UGX to DJF Historical Review

YEARLY HIGH

0.0537 DJF

YEARLY LOW

0.0491 DJF

YEARLY AVERAGE

0.0520 DJF

2016 UGX to DJF Performance & Market Timing Review

Analysis of key historical highlights and timing insights for 2016

During 2016, the UGX to DJF exchange rate experienced significant fluctuation. The market reached its absolute peak on April 24, valuing the pair at 0.0537. Conversely, the yearly low was recorded on December 2, dropping to 0.0491.

This high-to-low spread represents a total annual volatility of 0.0047 DJF. From a start-to-finish perspective, comparing the January average rate of 0.0516 to the December average rate of 0.0496, the exchange rate registered a net change of -3.90% (reflecting a weakening trend).

Looking at year-over-year peak valuations, the 2016 high of 0.0537 was down 16.61% compared to the 2015 peak of 0.0644, indicating shifts in long-term support levels.

Transfer Payout Power Comparison

Comparing the value generated converting 5,000 UGX based on timing:

Yearly Peak High 269 DJF

2015 Average 276 DJF

Yearly Trough Low 245 DJF

Transaction Impact: A difference of 23.30 DJF purely based on transaction execution date.

Trend Visualization

Monthly average fluctuations over the course of 2016.

0.0535

0.0492

JanuMarcMayJulySeptNove

UGX to DJF Seasonal Trends & Volatility Analysis

A structured review of seasonal halves, trading extremes, consecutive streaks, and historical baselines.

Seasonal Halves (H1 vs H2)

Seasonal

The average exchange rate in the first half of the year (H1: Jan–Jun) was 0.0526, compared to 0.0515 in the second half (H2: Jul–Dec). This shows that the rate was stronger in the first half (Jan–Jun) by a margin of 0.0011 points.

H1 Avg (Jan–Jun) 0.0526

H2 Avg (Jul–Dec) 0.0515

Volatility Range Comparison

Volatility

The most volatile month in 2016 was November, with a trading range of 0.0023 DJF (High: 0.0514 / Low: 0.0491). On the other end, August was the most stable month, with a tight range of 0.0004 DJF (High: 0.0527 / Low: 0.0523).

November Spread (Volatile) ±0.0023

August Spread (Stable) ±0.0004

Growth Streaks & Declines

Trends

Between January and April, the exchange rate recorded its longest consecutive growth streak of the year, climbing for 3 straight months. Conversely, the sharpest month-over-month decline occurred between October and November, when the average rate fell by 0.0018 points.

Longest Streak 3 Mo.

Sharpest MoM Drop -0.0018

Same-Month Historical Baseline

YoY Baseline

Comparing the current year's strongest month average (April 2016: 0.0532) against the same month in 2015 (average: 0.0593), the exchange rate shifted by -0.0061 (-10.34%).

2016 Avg (April) 0.0532

2015 Avg (April) 0.0593

Monthly Breakdown

Statistical summary for each calendar month.

Month	High	Low	Average
January	0.0526	0.0510	0.0516
February	0.0530	0.0511	0.0518
March	0.0532	0.0526	0.0529
April	0.0537	0.0527	0.0532
May	0.0536	0.0525	0.0531
June	0.0531	0.0521	0.0528
July	0.0527	0.0522	0.0525
August	0.0527	0.0523	0.0526
September	0.0527	0.0523	0.0525
October	0.0526	0.0512	0.0518
November	0.0514	0.0491	0.0500
December	0.0504	0.0491	0.0496