2016 MDL to UGX Historical Review

YEARLY HIGH

182.3239 UGX

YEARLY LOW

167.1300 UGX

YEARLY AVERAGE

171.8469 UGX

2016 MDL to UGX Performance & Market Timing Review

Analysis of key historical highlights and timing insights for 2016

During 2016, the MDL to UGX exchange rate experienced significant fluctuation. The market reached its absolute peak on December 29, valuing the pair at 182.3239. Conversely, the yearly low was recorded on March 1, dropping to 167.1300.

This high-to-low spread represents a total annual volatility of 15.1939 UGX. From a start-to-finish perspective, comparing the January average rate of 169.5064 to the December average rate of 178.9587, the exchange rate registered a net change of 5.58% (reflecting a strengthening trend).

Looking at year-over-year peak valuations, the 2016 high of 182.3239 was down 4.94% compared to the 2015 peak of 191.7947, indicating shifts in long-term support levels.

Transfer Payout Power Comparison

Comparing the value generated converting 5,000 MDL based on timing:

Yearly Peak High 911,619 UGX

2015 Average 862,265 UGX

Yearly Trough Low 835,650 UGX

Transaction Impact: A difference of 75,969.32 UGX purely based on transaction execution date.

Trend Visualization

Monthly average fluctuations over the course of 2016.

179.9658

167.8809

JanuMarcMayJulySeptNove

MDL to UGX Seasonal Trends & Volatility Analysis

A structured review of seasonal halves, trading extremes, consecutive streaks, and historical baselines.

Seasonal Halves (H1 vs H2)

Seasonal

The average exchange rate in the first half of the year (H1: Jan–Jun) was 169.9410, compared to 173.7528 in the second half (H2: Jul–Dec). This shows that the rate was stronger in the second half (Jul–Dec) by a margin of 3.8117 points.

H1 Avg (Jan–Jun) 169.9410

H2 Avg (Jul–Dec) 173.7528

Volatility Range Comparison

Volatility

The most volatile month in 2016 was November, with a trading range of 6.5808 UGX (High: 179.7376 / Low: 173.1567). On the other end, August was the most stable month, with a tight range of 0.8707 UGX (High: 171.4639 / Low: 170.5932).

November Spread (Volatile) ±6.5808

August Spread (Stable) ±0.8707

Growth Streaks & Declines

Trends

Between May and December, the exchange rate recorded its longest consecutive growth streak of the year, climbing for 7 straight months. Conversely, the sharpest month-over-month decline occurred between April and May, when the average rate fell by 1.2730 points.

Longest Streak 7 Mo.

Sharpest MoM Drop -1.2730

Same-Month Historical Baseline

YoY Baseline

Comparing the current year's strongest month average (December 2016: 178.9587) against the same month in 2015 (average: 170.4467), the exchange rate shifted by +8.5120 (+4.99%).

2016 Avg (December) 178.9587

2015 Avg (December) 170.4467

Monthly Breakdown

Statistical summary for each calendar month.

Month	High	Low	Average
January	171.2878	167.9179	169.5064
February	173.2157	167.3402	170.7723
March	172.5228	167.1300	170.0887
April	172.6077	168.1620	170.1610
May	169.8525	167.5489	168.8880
June	172.6965	169.0012	170.2299
July	171.8426	169.9522	170.9298
August	171.4639	170.5932	171.0338
September	171.8729	170.8438	171.3115
October	174.6468	171.7707	172.7479
November	179.7376	173.1567	177.5350
December	182.3239	175.8984	178.9587